China's broiler industry urgently needs to deepen the adjustment of industrial structure.

Since the beginning of this year, the broiler market has remained in the doldrums, and although there has been a slight rebound before the National Day, the current purchase prices of broiler chickens in the main producing areas are mostly less than 6 yuan per kilogram, which is still a big drop compared with the same period in previous years. Industry insiders believe that although there has been a slight rebound in broiler prices recently, affected by flat consumption, its holiday demand pull is limited, and the future is affected by multiple factors, and market prices are likely to fluctuate at a low level.

Pre-holiday purchasing peak market low shock

Since September, with the weather getting cooler and entering the seasonal consumption season, supported by the consumption demand of colleges and universities, and the superposition effect of centralized procurement during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the broiler market should have seen a situation of booming purchases and sales. however, the current broiler market continues to deviate from the pig market, although it is in the peak period of consumption, but the overall performance of the market still maintains ups and downs.

In fact, the broiler market has been showing great ups and downs since last year. The sluggish broiler market also triggered the cold willingness of broiler chickens to fill the fence, and prices plunged sharply, resulting in a sharp decline in the profits of related enterprises. After entering August, as the bad weather affected the sales of broilers, it was difficult for broilers to get out of the fence, and the prices of broilers fluctuated to a certain extent.

Recent monitoring information shows that although the current consumption season is gradually entering, the market is still depressed. At the end of September, in order to avoid double hurdles, the number of broilers temporarily declined, supporting the price of hairy chickens to rise again. On September 30, the price of hairy chickens in the main producing areas returned to 6 yuan, with an average price of 6.07 yuan / kg, with the highest price being 6.54 yuan / kg in Liaoning and 5.9 yuan / kg in Henan and Jiangsu. Due to the low price of hairy chicken, market panic and weak willingness of farmers to fill the fence, the price of broiler seedlings has hit bottom, with an average price of 0.55 yuan per feather. Due to the slow delivery of slaughterhouse chicken products, increased inventory pressure, and falling prices, it is expected that there is limited room for a sharp rise in meat chicken prices in the coming period of time.

There is still excess capacity. The market supply exceeds demand.

In recent years, China's white-feathered broiler industry has developed rapidly, but the rapid development has not brought about the prosperity of the industry. On the contrary, due to the opacity of market information, consumption status and production capacity. As a result, poultry breeding enterprises blindly invest in introduction and expansion, farmers flock to it, excessive production does not match the market demand, resulting in the imbalance between production and marketing, and the market presents a situation of supply exceeding demand.

According to industry insiders, since 2009, the import of ancestral breeder chickens in China has continued to grow significantly, but in recent years, China's poultry industry has encountered frequent accidents. Since 2013, a series of negative incidents such as "Quick Chicken", "H7N9 bird flu" and "Husi Meat" have brought a serious impact on the poultry industry, resulting in a lack of consumer confidence, a weak market, unmarketable breeding and fowl, many poultry plants and slaughterhouses have lost money, some enterprises have operational difficulties or even closed down, and the whole industry is facing crisis.

In the face of this new situation, it has become the consensus of the industry to adjust the industrial structure in 2014, and it is inevitable to reduce the number of breeder chickens. It is understood that 14 domestic ancestral chicken enterprises, including probiotic shares, have signed the 2014 ancestral Chicken introduction quota Agreement. On March 18, 2014, the White Feather Broiler Alliance reached a consensus that from April 1, ancestral breeder chickens must be eliminated for 50 weeks (Kobao 52 weeks), gradually reducing the total amount by 20%. However, the large number of ancestral chickens in 2013 will still directly affect the stock of parent generation chickens in 2014, thus supporting the 2015 commercial generation chicken seedlings.

According to another survey, although the current efficiency of broiler farming has decreased, and more and more small and medium-sized farmers have withdrawn, the number of commercial broilers has not decreased generally due to the launch of large enterprises. At present, the stock of broilers is still very large, and the price decline is inevitable.

The future is not optimistic after the slowdown of consumer demand.

Industry insiders said that due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth since last year, the increasing downward pressure on the domestic real economy, and the decline in employment demand for industrial enterprises and general service industries, consumer demand has remained weak this year; in addition, in order to prevent bird flu, some areas have implemented a temporary suspension system and closed live poultry trading markets, affecting the daily sales of live poultry markets. At the same time, due to the impact of imported chicken products, there are still many variables in the future broiler market trend.

In recent years, with the promotion of population growth and urbanization, meat consumption in China has increased to a certain extent, but the growth rate is slow. Taking into account the proportion of poultry in meat consumption, we can see that the proportion of poultry production in total meat production has always hovered around 20% in the past decade, and the proportion of poultry production in total meat production increased by only 1.20 percentage points from 2000 to 2013. It can be seen that the growth rate of poultry in meat consumption is not very fast, and some negative reports are not conducive to the further increase of poultry consumption. Therefore, the white feather broiler industry is still very impetuous in building large projects and expanding production capacity, which is actually not a good thing for the future development of the industry.

In the case of blind expansion of the industry and decline in consumer demand, the state has relaxed the chicken import policy in recent years, in which a large number of chicken scraps have been dumped to China at low prices because there is no market abroad. Chinese chicken production enterprises rely on relatively high prices to maintain certain profits, therefore, under the impact of imported chicken products, the overall profits of slaughtering enterprises decline. Affect the purchase price of broilers upstream.

It is imperative to face the bottleneck of industry and adjust.

The poultry industry is closely related to the macro-economy, and the cyclical fluctuations of the macro-economy will directly affect the consumption of poultry products. Therefore, practitioners in the industry must pay close attention to macroeconomic operation and policy guidance, in order to adjust the scale of production, make a reasonable development plan, and regard deepening the adjustment of industrial structure as the top priority.

In recent years, although China's broiler industry has developed rapidly, the importance of the industry has been underestimated. It is understood that at present, the broiler industry has not been included in the list in the national statistical public data. For the media, the white feather broiler industry is also a relatively unfamiliar industry. Because it did not use the media as a channel to enhance the transparency of the industry, lack of interaction with consumers, did not establish a mutual trust mechanism with consumers, and the industry lacked crisis public relations and communication and publicity to the media. These are the bottlenecks and shortcomings that restrict the development of the industry, and the following measures need to be taken to solve them.

Formulate industrial development strategies and plans. The white feather broiler industry needs to change the old way that all enterprises only focus on their own development, which leads to blind expansion and vicious competition. Special research should be organized to study the development strategy of broiler industry and formulate plans so that the leading enterprises can have a unified understanding of the development prospect, speed, scale and direction.

We will strengthen the publicity of science popularization, guide healthy consumption, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the industry. The industry needs to actively interact with the mass media to strengthen consumers' perception of the industry. Establish a crisis public relations mechanism to protect the industry from being hurt by public opinion when there are false remarks that harm the interests of the industry. By setting up a visiting base or an educational base, we can publicize the relevant science knowledge of white-feathered broilers for a long time and continuously, so that consumers can have a scientific, objective and true understanding of the white-feathered broiler industry.

Vigorously promote exports, oppose smuggling and standardize imports. Open up the international market, promote China's chicken export, and increase the international market share; at the same time, actively communicate with government departments to prohibit the smuggling of chicken products, take anti-dumping, countervailing and other safeguard and relief measures against products that discriminate against China's export products and rely on unfair competition to enter our market, and actively standardize import behavior.

Further refine the large-scale and standardized evaluation system, and do a good job in the regional layout of industrial development. In the future, clearer certification standards and evaluation system should be introduced to guide the future development of the industry.

Industry insiders believe that if the regulation and control measures to promote the balance of production and marketing in the broiler industry can be successfully implemented, the number of parent breeder chickens will continue to decline in the second half of 2015, and the market for white-feathered broiler commercial chickens in 2016 will show a substantial improvement due to a reduction in supply. At the same time, it is necessary to vigorously promote the consumption of "chilled chicken" and support enterprises to take the deep processing route, so as to further promote the orderly and normal development of the broiler industry.