Agricultural demand side changes during the transition period the volatility of bulk products expands.

China Securities Network News (trainee reporter Jin Jiajie) the across-the-board decline in the prices of the three staple grains this year has triggered market concerns about agriculture, and the agricultural market in China's economic transition has also shown new risk characteristics. At the 4th risk Management and Agricultural Development Forum held on the 7th, Zhang Zhe, director of the Market and Economic Information Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, pointed out that profound changes have taken place in the total agricultural demand and consumption structure during the transformation of economic development mode. the agricultural market risk in the new period presents new characteristics such as the expansion of price fluctuations of large goods. It is necessary to strengthen the agricultural anti-risk system by building a safety net for farmers' income, improving the government regulation and control toolbox, and speeding up the construction of e-commerce to improve the circulation efficiency of agricultural products.

Now that China's economic growth is slowing, profound changes are taking place on the agricultural demand side. Zhang pointed out that the consumption of rations with less flexibility is relatively stable, but the growth rate of consumption of meat, eggs, milk and aquatic products with higher added value has declined, and the processing demand for corn and cotton with longer production chains has shrunk significantly. The growth rate of pork consumption fell by 1.5 percentage points in 2014. It is estimated that the consumption demand for corn will decrease by 16 billion jin from January to October this year.

The market-oriented reform of the price system of agricultural products also brings some labor pains. As all parties in the market, especially producers, have formed the expectation of a "policy city", when the subsidy mechanism and the market-oriented risk prevention and control system have not yet been established, the risk of market volatility in the initial stage of the reform may even be magnified, resulting in farmers bearing more costs.

At the same time, China's agricultural information and market service system can not meet the needs of modern agricultural construction. "our current market information has not yet met the needs of farmers' management decisions. How many products are there, how high or low the price changes, whether the sales price is lost or earned, and when these three numbers can be obtained, the production and management decisions of our farmers will no longer be blind. "

Under this background, the market risk of agricultural products in China presents new characteristics. First, the volatility of commodities has widened. Zhang said that over the past years, the prices of wheat, rice and corn have not changed much due to the basic support of the minimum purchase price and temporary storage policy, but now there are problems in the price return of commodities. This year's cliff drop in wheat prices and corn collection and storage adjustment are worthy of attention.

Secondly, the external factors of agriculture and the transmission effect of the international market are getting stronger and stronger. Products such as cotton oil and sugar are highly dependent on imports, and their prices are obviously affected by the international market. International oil prices have a profound impact on major grain products, especially on corn varieties.

The third aspect is that it is more difficult to ensure the stability of farmers' benefits and the balance between domestic supply and demand. After the temporary storage price of corn is reduced this year, the income of the new type of operator will be greatly reduced or even lose money, and the income of farmers in Northeast China will be reduced by about 20 billion yuan. The decline in food prices will dampen farmers' enthusiasm for planting, which means that the cycle of food price fluctuations is getting closer and closer.

In view of the new risks in the agricultural market, Zhang Zhe stressed that we should adhere to the bottom line thinking and adhere to the three bottom lines: the basic stability of farmers' income in the main producing areas; the basic self-sufficiency of grain and the absolute safety of food rations; and the security of agricultural industry. The next step is to enhance the ability to resist risks. Ensure production capacity, improve labor productivity and achieve cost-saving and efficiency in agriculture; optimize agricultural structure under the guidance of the improvement of residents' consumption level and the upgrading of consumption structure; speed up the construction of e-commerce platform and improve the circulation efficiency of agricultural products.

He pointed out that there are many problems in the prices of agricultural products, such as the sharp rise and fall in the prices of agricultural products, the fact that farmers sell cheaply and the people buy high prices, and that prices are upside down. It is precisely because of the long circulation links and high circulation costs of agricultural products that lead to these unreasonable phenomena, so increasing the circulation rate is one of the important channels to prevent agricultural risks.

At the same time, the state should also establish an agricultural risk prevention system: build a safety net for farmers' income; improve government regulation and control toolboxes, including price policy, credit policy, futures policy and so on; speed up the establishment of a global agricultural data investigation and analysis system, and establish a monitoring and early warning system in line with the operation of China's agricultural products market.