Food prices fluctuate greatly. What will you plant in the coming year?

With a bumper harvest, falling prices are worrying.

"this is yellow corn, this is sweet corn. It is very fragrant and tender. " At the Huaihe seed Industry Grain Industry complex in Hanqiao District, Suzhou City, three or five farmers are bagging the corn after harvest.

"the output is good this year, but it can't sell at a price." In the eyes of farmers, it is another year of bumper harvest, but the income market is obviously not as good as in previous years.

"these are dried corn, which contains 11% moisture. The grains are very full and belong to first-class products, but now they can only sell for 77 cents per jin." Open the warehouse of the consortium, said Li Yong, head of the grain industry consortium of the Huaihe seed industry.

The consortium is composed of Huaihe seed Company, 13 farmers' professional cooperatives, including Dejie and Huikang, 27 family farms and some large grain growers. Li Yong said, "from the point of view of the situation in the consortium, most farmers or farmers are waiting for the opportunity. This price will lose money, so they have to store it temporarily and look at the market."

Zhang Qingwei, director of the Agricultural Committee of Mianqiao District, said that this year, the total sown area of summer corn in the region is 1.5412 million mu, with an average yield of 573.08 kg per mu, and all production indicators have reached an all-time high. "but the corn price situation this year is too grim. The current market price is less than 0.8 yuan per jin, down nearly 30 percent from 1.1 yuan per jin last year, "Zhang Qingwei said." sales are also difficult. At this time last year, enterprises competed to buy, but now everyone is waiting to wait and see. "

As for the reasons for the decline in corn prices, Zhao Xiaochun, deputy director of the Suzhou Municipal Committee of Agriculture, believes that it is mainly the result of market regulation. "International grain prices are generally 20%, 30% lower than ours, which will inevitably have an impact on the domestic market, and at the same time, years of bumper harvests, grain warehousing and inventory backlog, market digestion capacity saturation, have made corn sales as a whole a situation in which supply exceeds demand."

"not only corn, wheat and other crops are also affected, but fortunately, there is a state policy to support the acquisition of the market." Zhao Ying, deputy director of the Grain Bureau of Hanqiao District, said that the acquisition by the state to support the market is a regulation and control means for the state to protect the interests of farmers and prevent "cheap grain from harming farmers." When the market price is lower than the market price, the China Grain Storage Management Corporation shall purchase the farmers' surplus grain up to the standard according to the market price set by the state and hold up the market price.

"because Anhui Province is the main wheat producing area, the state has the lowest purchase price for wheat every year, and this year's standard is 1.18 yuan per jin." Zhao Ying said.

Reckoning, business is not easy this year.

From more than 1 yuan to more than 70 cents, how much impact does it have on farmers?

He Yongliu, a big grain grower, has contracted about 800mu of land in Qinwei Village, Huigu Town. He knows that he has to pay farmers 1100 yuan per mu of land every year, nearly 400 yuan for the purchase of fertilizers and fertilizers, 120 yuan for the cost of farming and leveling land, 120 yuan for the purchase of seeds, 100 yuan for labor, and more than 100 yuan for drought resistance and medication, plus other freight and drying costs. The total annual investment cost per mu of land is nearly 2000 yuan.

"every year, each mu of land is calculated on the basis of 1000 jin of wheat and corn, and the price of wheat is about 1.20 yuan per catty. If the corn is still more than 70 cents, then the capital preservation is barely possible this year." "at present, the corn is still overstocked and unsold," he Yong said. "I don't know if the situation will improve in the future, but if this happens every year, I will have to consider withdrawing from the land transfer."

In addition to he Yong, Dai Hongcheng, a grain broker in Huigu Town, Guiqiao District, is also in a lot of trouble. "on the surface, falling prices have little impact on brokers, just buy, raise and resell them directly, but in fact this is not the case." Dai Hongcheng said, "now the price of corn is about 0.75 yuan per catty. For example, if I buy it at 0.78 yuan per catty today, normally I will resell it with an increase of 2 cents per catty, but if the price of corn falls to 0.75 yuan per catty tomorrow, the corn I collected yesterday will have to sell at a loss."

"it seems like a fluctuation of a few cents, but on average, I buy 50,000 to 60,000 jin of corn every day. If the price falls a lot, it will have a big impact on me," says Dai Hongcheng. "now that we can't see through the market situation, we dare not buy it easily. If the price situation were good, I wouldn't have time for your interview at this time. I would have gone down to buy it early. "

What do you think? There is a big drop in prices.

"the most direct manifestation is the reduction of farmers' income, which may also have a knock-on effect." Zhao Ying said, "some land transfer contractors may not be able to pay the transfer fees to farmers on time, and even if they pay the transfer fees for the current year, the contractors' enthusiasm for growing grain will be greatly affected."

"contractors are generally in good economic conditions locally, but in the case of transferring hundreds of mu of land, because grain prices are low, they often need to lose tens of thousands or even more than NT $100,000 in savings, and this pressure is very difficult for them to bear." Li Yong said: at present, many land transfer contractors in the consortium have expressed the idea that they want to withdraw, and if a large number of contractors withdraw, it will be very disadvantageous to the development of agricultural industrialization and scale.

In addition, the "crowding out" effect of falling corn prices on other food crops can not be ignored. Li Guanghui, general manager of Suzhou Huigu Grain and Oil Purchasing and Marketing Co., Ltd., said, "our company is mainly responsible for the storage and escrow of wheat, and the storage information of wheat in the warehouse will be listed regularly in the Anhui Grain Wholesale Trading Center. Interested enterprises can choose to buy. However, if enterprises find low-cost corn as a substitute when production conditions permit, the stored wheat will not be sold, and the price will be affected accordingly. "

The decline in corn is not small, but is there room for corn prices to rise in the short term?

Li Yong is not optimistic about this. "the decline in corn prices is not accidental, the contraction of market digestion is a long-term factor, and the situation of oversupply in the market is also difficult to change in a short period of time." For example, affected by the economic situation, the products produced by deep processing enterprises in the market cannot be sold or the sales performance is not good, so the demand for raw materials such as corn will naturally be reduced. "

What should I do? Industrial transformation and long-term development

The relevant responsible persons of the Grain Bureau and the District Committee of Agriculture of Jinqiao District all said that they would provide as much help as possible, including helping to contact relevant feed factories, alcohol processing plants and other enterprises to expand the grain market of farmers.

"can we give some subsidies to large grain growers and transfer land contractors at the national level, or also implement the purchase of corn by the state to support the market?" He Yong is eagerly looking forward to a correction in corn prices.

In this regard, Zhao Ying suggested, "Market support acquisitions play a positive role in protecting the interests of farmers. Under the conditions permitted by the state finance, we can try our best to protect farmers' interests and increase subsidies for grain production." In the long run, the adjustment of the planting structure and the transformation and upgrading of the grain industry are of great significance. "

From the market stock point of view, corn and other food crops have been relatively saturated, the next step needs to do a good guide, try to plant some cash crops. On the other hand, consideration can be given to further studying and expanding the use of grain. Zhao Ying suggested, "for example, it seems that the deep processing of corn is mainly used for the production of feed and alcohol, and whether the next step can be considered to expand the production of fuel and develop new uses at the same time."

"We are also planning the adjustment of the planting structure, and the next step is to consider guiding farmers to grow some cash crops such as vegetables." Zhao Xiaochun said, "at the same time, we are also trying to promote green technology to increase production, reduce inputs such as pesticides and chemical fertilizers, and save costs and increase efficiency."

This year, Suzhou has undertaken 8 green demonstration films with a total area of 71900 mu and 8 green demonstration villages with a total area of 50500 mu. Zhao Xiaochun said that at the technical level, through the selection of formula fertilizer or controlled-release fertilizer, we can also promote the integrated regulation and control technology of soil and fertilizer, changing single watering to applying "nutrient solution", so as to improve the utilization efficiency of fertilizer and water. "next, we will expand the scale of the demonstration so that green technology to increase production can be widely used." Zhao Xiaochun said.