With the arrival of the new policy, is the "spring" of the dairy industry still far away?

Although the "new policy" of milk powder has only been implemented for a month, it is known as the worst reshuffle in history, and many milk powder companies have put on a final frenzy by selling their goods in tears. Recently, the reporter learned from a number of industry insiders that at present, many milk powder on the market carry out ultra-low price "dumping" with different promotional methods, and the price is unprecedentedly low. Among them, the shipping price of a cradle milk powder dealer in a certain place is 20,25 yuan per can, while focus exclusive Beinmei's "Green Love +" promotion price imported from the original Irish cans is even 19.9 yuan per can. In Shaanxi province, which is a leader in the development of sheep milk powder, most dairy companies have begun to restrict the purchase of goat milk.

Industry insiders said that at present, a large number of milk powder in stock in the market are on sale, including not only domestic milk powder, but also imported milk powder. Part of the reason is that it is nearing the expiration date, and a larger part is that some brands have to withdraw from the market because of the strict implementation of the new policy, in order to deal with the full clearance before the policy deadline.

Most brands of dairy enterprises are facing elimination.

According to the new policy of milk powder, there should be obvious differences between the product formulations of the same age group applied for registration by the same enterprise, and there is scientific basis to confirm that each enterprise may not apply for registration of more than 5 series and 15 product formulations.

Insiders told reporters that in order to adapt to multi-regional marketing, most small and medium-sized milk powder enterprises have dozens or even hundreds of brands, according to the new policy, only 5 can be retained, which can be retained is unknown.

As for the current quantity of products in stock, a number of industry analysts said that it is conservatively estimated that it is nearly 10 billion yuan, and the minimum is not less than several billion yuan. at present, there are more than 1500 customized milk powder brands on the market, and according to the starting order quantity of 30,000 cans, there are at least 45 million cans. at the original price of 200 yuan per can, there is about 9 billion yuan in inventory.

Xie Guansheng, an expert in dairy industry, said that the situation of products sold at discounts is also different. Some milk powder brands do have relatively large inventories, and in order to speed up the elimination of inventory, they have recently begun a substantial promotion, while the other is the dumping of customized brand products. Many milk powder brands are worried that some customized brands will be integrated out of the new policy in the future. Therefore, the sale of customized products of the above brands was originally sold for more than 200 yuan, but now it is only sold for more than 100 yuan.

Wang Weimin, secretary general of Shaanxi Dairy Safety Association, said that after this adjustment, it is an indisputable fact that the number of brands has been greatly reduced, but the most important thing is that a large number of small and medium-sized dairy enterprises will be closed. Wang Weimin said: in Shaanxi Province, for example, there are 16 sheep milk powder enterprises, most of which are processed and branded. The new policy is a fatal blow to these enterprises, and it is estimated that there will be three or five enterprises left in the end.

Industry insiders believe that at present, the brands with greater influence are the cradle, Mingyi, Guanshan, Shengyuan, Feihe and other brands, as well as sheep milk powder brands such as Shaanxi Yubao, while the slightly less influential ones are Beinmei and Yashili, which started relatively late in customized products, but there are also many customized brands. The ones that have little impact are Hesheng Yuan and Yili, which have no customized products. And this new policy also has a great impact on domestic sheep milk powder brands, due to the serious phenomenon of licensing, many brands will be eliminated.

Concentration increases and tends to big-name competition.

In addition to domestic brands facing a major reshuffle, foreign milk powder brands have also suffered the most stringent policy adjustments in history. as many brands are contract manufacturers from overseas, the new policy will make many brands face the situation that there are no manufacturers to produce for them.

Wang Weimin said that after the new deal, imported milk powder brands and domestic big brands may occupy more market share. According to its introduction, there are as many as dozens of contract manufacturing brands in domestic enterprises, but for those well-known milk powder enterprises, the brands themselves are few and dominate by popularity, and the impact of the restrictions on the number of brands in the New deal on foreign milk powder is far less than that of domestic enterprises.

The big sale will last until the end of next year, and the phenomenon will stabilize in the second half of next year. Inventory reduction is the biggest problem facing the industry at present. With the increasing efforts to sell goods, many brands will withdraw from the market, the concentration of the industry will increase, some miscellaneous and small brands will be cleared out, and several giants will compete in the industry.

In fact, the "work Plan for promoting the merger and reorganization of Infant Formula Milk Powder Enterprises" issued last year clearly stated that by the end of 2015, we will strive to form 10 large infant formula enterprise groups with an annual sales income of more than 2 billion yuan. the industry concentration of the top 10 domestic brand enterprises reached 65%. "the current policy orientation is centralization and re-centralization." Wang Weimin said.

It is worth noting that with the increase of the concentration of the industry, the voice of dealers and store channels will be reduced, and there will be operational difficulties in some access links that make high profits by selling fake products. Some dealers and baby stores will also be closed or transformed.

The upstream aquaculture industry is adjusted accordingly.

With the introduction of the new policy of milk powder, it has become an industry consensus that the upstream and downstream of the milk powder industry will face a huge adjustment.

Take the sheep milk powder industry in Shaanxi Province as an example. When interviewed by this reporter three months ago, the purchase price of Goat Grandma Yuan was about 8 to 10 yuan / kg, but as of November 3, the purchase price of raw materials for goat milk had dropped to 3 to 4 yuan / kg, and the income of dairy sheep farmers was only less than 2.5 yuan / kg. "in a short period of one or two months, the situation has changed greatly. when people send milk to major dairy enterprises, they don't want it at all, saying that they can't produce so much." Dairy sheep farmers told reporters.

Is this really the case? In the workshop of a dairy processing enterprise in Shaanxi Province, the production equipment that has just been replaced is silently parked in the corner. "We used to have dozens of brands, but now the new policy requires that there are only five left. Who dares to produce them? if we can't sell them, it will cause huge losses. Dare not mass production, can only limit the amount of milk, reduce the price of milk is a natural thing. However, when this signal is fed back to dairy farmers, dairy farmers are afraid of what will happen to the dairy industry, and they are also hesitant about whether the sheep can be raised next year. " The person in charge of the enterprise said.

The impact of the new milk powder policy has been reflected in the dairy goat market. Just three months ago, the purchase price of a fine dairy goat was not less than 2000 yuan, but after the release of the new policy on milk powder, the purchase price of a dairy goat has fallen to 1000 yuan because of worries about the future market.

"the goat milk industry in Shaanxi has just embarked on the fast track of development, and after the New deal, the production capacity of the enterprises of 2max 3 will be in a state of excess and have to stop production." Wang Weimin told reporters that if there are only 5 brands and 15 individual products, the market sales of the five brands with the largest sales volume of Shaanxi sheep milk enterprises can only account for 30% and 40% of the company's total performance, and small and medium-sized dairy enterprises will directly suffer a fatal blow and have to launch the market in the future.

For those small farmers who supply milk to small and medium-sized dairy enterprises, milk prices continue to fall, and they will have to kill sheep to reduce the losses caused by breeding. "in the future, it must be the directional cooperation between large-scale farming cooperatives and large dairy enterprises, which can not only ensure the quality of milk sources, but also reduce breeding costs." A number of dairy experts told reporters.

Industry insiders believe that the reduction of milk powder brands will make the management of regulatory departments more meticulous, the probability of problematic milk powder will be greatly reduced, and the introduction of a new milk powder policy is conducive to the development of the industry in the long run. If adjusted by the means of the market, the process will be longer. However, through the adjustment of industrial policy, the original slow progress can be turned into a sudden development, but it shocked the industry too much and left too little buffer time for farmers, especially farmers.