Establish a new concept of food security to ensure new food security

Before 2004, China's grain self-sufficiency rate has been maintained at more than 95%, but in the past 10 years, the grain self-sufficiency rate has declined, to about 85% in 2014. It is worth noting that the decline in the self-sufficiency rate is not caused by the decline in grain production, but occurs when grain production has increased in a row and exceeded 600 billion kg in 2014. this shows that the decline in China's grain self-sufficiency rate is caused by a sharp increase in grain demand. As a result, there is a debate about the concept of food security, and some people are worried about this situation, thinking that China's food security is under great threat, and we should increase food production and self-sufficiency at all costs. Equating food security with food self-sufficiency rate, the higher the self-sufficiency rate, the safer it is. This is the traditional concept of food security.

In recent years, the central government's understanding of food security has changed and put forward a new national food security strategy of "giving priority to ourselves, based at home, ensuring production capacity, moderate imports, and scientific and technological support". This new strategy is a great change in the concept of food security. we call it the new concept of food security, which is a major change in understanding compared with the traditional concept of food security, which emphasizes that the higher the rate of food self-sufficiency, the better.

Of course, 100% grain self-sufficiency rate is the safest, but judging from China's national conditions, this kind of food security is neither economical nor necessary.

First of all, China's land resources are limited, the per capita area of cultivated land accounts for only 40% of the world average, and the high-quality cultivated land is even less, and the high-quality cultivated land above the third class only accounts for 27% of the total cultivated land area. On the basis of a very high grain self-sufficiency rate, every increase of one percentage point in the grain self-sufficiency rate will increase the grain cost by several percentage points, and the higher the self-sufficiency rate, the higher the cost will increase geometrically. This is the so-called law of increasing marginal cost at work. According to relevant research, the cost of grain production in China has been on the rise since the mid-1980s. The average cost per mu has increased by 15 times, with an average annual increase of more than 8%. The cost of grain production per 100 kg has increased by 6.7 times, with an average annual increase of about 6%. On the other hand, China's industrialization and urbanization have not yet been completed, and the demand for land will increase greatly. If each urban resident covers an area of 100 square meters, if the urban population increases by 200 million, it will take up an additional 2 million hectares of land, as well as a large amount of arable land for industrial construction and the construction of transportation facilities such as roads and railways. Under such circumstances, if more land is used for grain production, the land for industrial production and urban development can only be strictly restricted, and the development of industrialization and urbanization will be seriously hindered. It is not worth the loss to increase the grain self-sufficiency rate by a few percentage points at the expense of industrialization and urbanization. What's more, most of the high-quality grain fields in China are distributed in densely populated and economically developed areas, such as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huang-Huai-Hai, while those areas with barren land and serious salinization, such as the northwest region, are also sparsely populated and economic development is relatively slow. To maintain a very high rate of food self-sufficiency, developed areas have to give up industrial and urban development and protect grain fields, which is very economically inefficient.

Secondly, there is a serious shortage of water resources in China. Water resources, like cultivated land resources, are the decisive factor of grain production. Although China is the fifth largest country in water resources in the world, the amount of water resources per capita is declining year by year. In 2014, the amount of water resources per capita is only 1993 cubic meters per person, which is only 1/4 of the world average, equivalent to about 3/5 of Japan, 1/5 of that of the United States, and 1/16 of Russia. It ranks 104th in the world and is listed as one of the 13 water-poor countries. Moreover, with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China, industrial and urban water consumption is increasing, which occupies water for grain production and greatly increases the cost of agricultural water. What is more, the distribution of water resources in China is extremely uneven, with inland renewable surface water resources accounting for only 19.7% in the north and 80.3% in the south. Before the reform and opening up, the south was the main grain producing area, and grain was always transported from the south to the north. However, with the economic development, the cultivated land in the south is gradually occupied by industrialization and urbanization, and the comparative benefit of growing grain is getting lower and lower. as a result, the north, which is short of water, has gradually become the main grain producing area, and the transportation of grain from the south to the north has gradually evolved into the transportation from the north to the south. In order to solve the problem of water shortage in the north, the state built a south-to-north water diversion project to transfer water from the south to the north and then transport grain from the north to the south. If the high self-sufficiency rate of food is emphasized, the cost is very staggering in terms of water resources alone.

Thirdly, due to the limited per capita possession of arable land, agricultural production is still dominated by small farmers, and the household management area is very small. Comparatively speaking, the scale of family farm operation in countries with fewer people and more land, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Argentina, is huge, and the labor productivity is dozens or even hundreds of times higher than that of China. In the case of huge differences in labor productivity, the production cost of grain in China is much higher than that in foreign countries. Even if grain from the United States is shipped to China thousands of miles away, the price of imported grain is still 50% or more lower than that of domestic grain. In addition, the rise in wages in China has led to a sharp increase in the labor cost of grain production, which has also pushed up the cost of grain. In the face of the dual predicament of ceiling suppression of grain prices and floor rise of production costs, the more domestic grain production, the greater the loss, the lower the income of farmers, or even abandon the land. If the government buys at a high price, it will greatly increase the financial burden and warehousing pressure. Therefore, it is much more economically cost-effective to import grain moderately than to produce it ourselves.

Finally, the pollution caused by agricultural production is becoming more and more serious. To produce more food, it is necessary to apply more chemical fertilizers, pesticides and plastic film, which will lead to the decline of soil fertility and more and more serious environmental pollution. In recent years, the "eleven consecutive increase" of grain output has been achieved under the extensive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural film. The use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in China has greatly exceeded the world average. According to the relevant data, the topsoil of nearly 1amp 4 in China is polluted to varying degrees by a variety of toxic and harmful pollutants, and the type and quantity of pesticide residues are increasing year by year. There are quality and safety problems such as excessive pesticide residues in grain, agricultural and livestock products and vegetables.

It can be seen that if our country wants to maintain a high rate of food self-sufficiency, we will have to pay a huge price in resources, economy and environment. However, some people may say that grain is not an ordinary commodity, but a strategic commodity related to the food security of 1.3 billion Chinese people, and it is necessary to ensure that food is completely self-sufficient no matter how costly it is. Indeed, it is necessary to maintain a relatively high grain self-sufficiency rate, because China's population accounts for about 1/5 of the world's population, and if the self-sufficiency rate is low, it will import grain on a large scale, which will have a tremendous impact on the world grain market and international grain prices will soar. If those big grain exporters encounter a major famine year and grain production is greatly reduced, grain prices will not only rise like rockets, but also lead to large-scale famine in China and other parts of the world because of food shortages. Therefore, from this point of view, there is no doubt that China must maintain a high rate of grain self-sufficiency in any case in order to ensure the food security of China and the world.

However, it is not necessary to maintain a food self-sufficiency rate of 100%, and properly importing food does not mean reducing food security. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of grain in many countries in the world is relatively low, but they have never had a crisis of food shortage. For example, the self-sufficiency rate of grain in Japan and South Korea has been relatively low, but also showing a downward trend. From 1990 to 2011, Japan's grain self-sufficiency rate dropped from 22% to 20.3%, and South Korea's grain self-sufficiency rate dropped from 35.6% to 25.8%. However, with such a low grain self-sufficiency rate, Japan and South Korea did not feel that there was a problem with food security. Italy, Spain and other countries in Europe also have relatively low rates of food self-sufficiency, and they have no worries about food security. It can be seen that a high grain self-sufficiency rate does not mean a high food security factor, and vice versa.

Some people may worry that if China's relations with the rest of the world deteriorate sharply, or even in the event of an extreme event such as war, it is possible to impose a grain embargo on China. This worry is totally unfounded! China has such a large land area that with the significant increase in economic strength, it can be said that no country can impose an effective blockade on China. Moreover, grain production and grain production capacity are two concepts. Appropriately reducing grain production, leaving some grain fields idle, or planting other crops, so as to maintain the existence of grain production capacity, is a new way of thinking in implementing the food security strategy. In the event of a worldwide reduction in grain production or the imposition of a grain embargo on China, we need not worry, as long as we maintain grain reserves for half a year, and the food supply can be restored in half a year.

Thus it can be seen that maintaining an excessively high grain self-sufficiency rate is not the best choice, whether in terms of economy or necessity, and ensuring production capacity and moderate import is the best food security strategy. The history of the great famine in the past makes people feel the fear of food shortage is understandable, but it is not what it used to be, and the concept of food security has to change with the changes of the times.