Corn temporary storage purchase tightening this year, corn prices can not continue to rise.

As one of the most important food crops in the country, corn prices have dropped sharply since the beginning of this year, and corn futures have fallen from a high of 2400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 1788 yuan / ton, and short positions have been increased all the way. the position of corn futures contract has also reached record highs. Recently, as all parts of the country have entered the autumn grain purchase stage, when the new grain is on the market on a large scale, the market has periodic fluctuations in grain prices, especially the spot price in the corn period.

It was reported on November 10th that the Chinese government is considering subsidies to feed processors to boost domestic corn sales, while the government plans to sell large stocks of state-owned corn reserves at discounted prices. The National Development and Reform Commission also proposed a reduction in corn harvest and storage prices for 2016 and 2017. Industry insiders said that recently, the NDRC is still meeting in Beijing to discuss the details of the next step, but concerns about further cuts in collection and storage prices have dragged down corn stocks in large companies.

Contrary to previous years, this year's reduction in corn prices has made this usual fluctuation of grain prices particularly complicated. In this regard, Lin Guofa, research manager of the Agricultural products Collection and purchase Network, said that subsidizing deep processing is not as good as subsidizing feed enterprises to reduce the production costs of the breeding industry, thereby reducing the import of meat.

The mildew rate of over 2% attracts attention.

Since the implementation of the corn harvest and storage policy in our country, although the market corn price has been stabilized to a certain extent and farmers' income has been protected, with the increase of corn storage price year by year, the ratio of corn to soybean has remained high. This also leads to the planting income of corn is much higher than that of soybean, which makes a huge stock of corn in our country. However, that changed abruptly until 2015.

In 2015, the national corn harvest and storage price in Northeast China dropped sharply from 2240 yuan / ton last year to 2000 yuan / ton, ending the previous trend of increasing collection and storage prices year by year. After the state announced the temporary storage price of corn in northeast China, the purchase price of corn in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places fell rapidly, down more than 20% from the same period last year, a decline that has not occurred since 2000.

"the sharp drop in corn prices this year is directly related to the reduction in the purchase price of temporary storage. Now, after the price has fallen, the market is most concerned about re-seeking the price balance point. In the past two years, under the market pattern that supply exceeds demand, during the northeast temporary reserve acquisition period, the price balance point is the temporary storage acquisition price, and the whole northeast market is priced at this price. " Wang Baoquan, manager of China Corn Network Information Research and Development Center, said in an interview with reporters.

However, as trading prices in the corn market continue to fall this year, the state continues to implement the temporary corn purchase policy this year in order to ensure national food security and farmers' income. On November 1, the temporary storage corn acquisition was officially launched. At present, 23 state-owned grain purchase depots in Daqing City are opening the door to purchase newly harvested corn.

"We have been running this thing for the past two days. We just finished loading the car yesterday and came here all night just to get a good price. Now that the whole process of the acquisition of the national grain depot is open and transparent, we have more and more confidence in our hearts. Half a day to complete the invoice, cutting samples, testing, jin inspection, unloading, peeling, settlement and other processes, inspection of qualified 200 tons of corn, but also smoothly entered the temporary storage, the heart hanging in the past few days can finally be put down. " Sun Shuming, a farmer in Hongqi Town, Lindian County, Daqing City, said in an interview with reporters.

In addition, according to the reporter's understanding, the current divergence of corn prices in the futures market is that this year's temporary storage acquisition is strictly controlled within 2% of the mildew quality, and more than 2% of the moldy corn is purchased by local governments, so how much can local governments charge? what price is still unknown. If the number of acquisitions is limited, then the late market liquidity will be strong, and the price will be under great pressure. If the number of acquisitions is large, then the market price support is strong.

In this regard, Wang Baoquan believes that this year, the collection and storage policy clearly proposes that the mildew of corn purchased by temporary storage should not exceed 2%, and that more than 2% of moldy corn should be purchased by local governments, but at present, local government acquisitions have not been officially started. The autumn grain collection and storage meeting also made it clear that it is necessary to "step up the introduction of measures for the acquisition of substandard corn", as the current temporary storage acquisition can only purchase mildew corn within 2%. Therefore, at present, the main body of the acquisition of corn mildew requirements are relatively strict.

In addition, the temporary storage started on November 1, and the amount of reserves collected in the first week was significantly higher than that in the first week of the previous year. In this regard, Lin Guofa said that the market is worried that the temporary storage price will hold up the price of corn in the northeast region, and a large amount of corn will enter the temporary warehouse, reducing the pressure on market circulation and driving up prices in North China at the same time. Corn futures under the influence of policy, there is a strong rise, capital-driven effect on the 9th, the main corn rose by the limit.

Lin Guofa believes that however, we need to note that domestic corn stocks are high, and the rapid rise in corn prices will result in high corn prices in the south, and the import replacement of sorghum and barley will remain at a high level, which is not conducive to corn destocking. At present, the price of 2000 yuan / ton corn in Northeast China is the top of the 2016 corn contract, and it is difficult for corn prices to continue to rise.

Corn deep processing enterprises receive subsidies

Since the listing of corn in the new season, corn prices in North China have formed a depression of national corn prices, and at the initial stage of new grain listing, the grass-roots purchase price has even dropped to 1600-1700 yuan / ton, while the northeast corn storage and purchase policy was announced in mid-September. The market has a certain expectation for the corn price during the acquisition period. Therefore, after the listing of new grain in Northeast China, the purchase price of the northern port is about 1900 yuan / ton, and the price space of 200,300 yuan / ton promotes the flow of corn to the northeast.

Lin Guofa believes that after the Spring Festival in 2015, the price of corn in Northeast China is on the high side. At one point, corn from the northern regions of Hebei and Henan flowed into the Northeast and entered the national storage. After the new corn went on the market in 2015 and 2016, the corn in Hebei also flowed into the northeast. It is the temporary storage policy that makes the northeast grain-producing area become a "high-price area" and the negative flow of corn.

In addition, because starch is the downstream of corn, according to the historical statistics of the spot market, the price difference between starch and corn is generally 500-550 yuan/ton. However, some changes have taken place this year. In mid-September, the Jilin provincial government raised the subsidy policy for corn deep processing. In the Notice on Improving the Subsidy Standard for Corn Deep Processing Enterprises, it is stipulated that in the fourth quarter of 2015, subsidies will continue to be given to corn deep processing enterprises with an annual processing capacity of more than 100,000 tons.

At the same time, it is planned to raise the original subsidy standard of 150 yuan per ton to 350 yuan for the national temporary collection and storage corn and provincial reserve rotation corn that are auctioned out of stock (before the end of the year) and processed for their own use, among which the state subsidy is 100 yuan, and the difference of 250 yuan is subsidized by the province (350 yuan for bidding provincial reserve rotation corn is all subsidized by the province). The subsidy settlement and appropriation shall be implemented according to the regulations of the state.

"Since 70% of starch pricing is still derived from corn, the rise in starch futures is also moving closer to spot prices, and it can be said that the rhythm of price increases is basically the same as corn. Only from the starch spot level, after the price of jade rice fell sharply in the early stage, the enterprise starch quotation also dropped sharply, which stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises. At present, the product inventory of starch enterprises is generally low, and most of them are based on the implementation of early contracts, so it also urges enterprises to improve product quotations." Wang Baoquan told reporters in an interview.

Due to the substantial reduction in raw material costs, the market competitiveness of corn deep-processed products has increased, and the use of alternative raw materials has decreased. In addition, the state has given Jilin deep processing enterprises production subsidies, and it is worth looking forward to whether the scope of subsidies will be further expanded in the future. Under the dual support of market and policy, it is expected that the operation of corn deep processing enterprises this year will be better than last year.

"At the same time, with the price of starch falling, the substitution advantage of starch sugar is significant. At the end of October, the price of starch 1605 contract traded on Dalian Commodity Exchange once appeared at 1910 yuan/ton. If the production cost of fructose syrup (F55) is less than 2000-2100 yuan/ton according to this price, the profit of the enterprise is guaranteed and part of the price fluctuation risk is accrued. Fructose syrup enterprises can quote 2300-2500 yuan/ton in the first two quarters of 2016, and convert white sugar to only 3000 yuan/ton." Lin Guofa said in an interview with reporters.

According to the current domestic sugar supply and demand situation and the current white sugar price, the price advantage of fructose syrup has exceeded the highest level in history, the starch demand has improved, the price is low, and there is a loss in hedging according to the previous disk price. Assuming that corn in North China drops to 1600 yuan/ton at worst, combined with the current byproduct price unchanged, the direct cost of long-term starch production is 1980 yuan/ton, which does not include interest expenses and management expenses. In order to obtain a profit of 10-20 yuan/ton, the starch sales price should be 2050-2100 yuan/ton.

The personage inside course of study thinks, it is because the starch price in the early stage is low, see more capital enters, the position quantity increases constantly, the difference is obvious, finally starch 1605 contract slides to 1908 yuan/ton bottom rebound, temporary reserve starts, corn price rises, starch futures price rises further, spot even appears out of stock situation, finally half month starch 1605 contract rose 220 yuan/ton or so, increase more than 10%.

Lin Guofa said, Overall, starch can rise depends on the corn trend, Corn more than 2000 yuan/ton risk is very high, Northeast corn deep processing subsidy per ton is 350 yuan, Equivalent to corn cost in 1650 yuan/ton, Limit starch price continues to rise crazily, Starch 1605 contract more than 2200 yuan/ton need to pay attention to risk, Compared with domestic corn inventory is too large, Corn price too high will limit its inventory, Increase later price pressure.