Current situation of China's wheat industry in 2015: small fluctuations in local prices

Since mid-November, the purchase and sales of domestic wheat market has remained flat, the overall performance of wheat prices has been stable, and local prices have fluctuated slightly. The national temporary storage wheat auction was carried out routinely, and all failed auctions appeared for the first time. International market USDA supply and demand report in November is obviously bearish, CBOT wheat in recent months recorded the biggest weekly decline since July. According to the monitoring of the center, as of November 12, the average trading price of third-class white wheat in the country's main grain and oil wholesale markets was 2228 yuan / ton, down 12 yuan / ton from a week earlier, down 290 yuan / ton from the same period in 2014, down 11.52 percent from the same period last year. In the 43rd period of 2015, the national wheat purchase price index of stored grain was 137.71, down 0.11% from the previous week.

After a month of repair, the current price of the wheat market has basically stabilized. As the influencing factors of long and short market are not obvious, the market mentality is relatively calm, it is expected that wheat prices will remain stable in the short term.

The overall wheat market is stable, and local prices fluctuate slightly.

According to convention, wheat flour consumption should gradually pick up in the fourth quarter, but due to the lack of end-market demand, the purchase and sale of wheat market at this time in 2015 appears insipid. Although wheat prices in some previous oversold areas rose slightly, on the whole, the current wheat prices are still lower than the national minimum purchase price as a whole.

On November 13, the entry price of common wheat in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province was 2340 yuan / ton, and that in Suzhou, Anhui Province was 2320 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week. The entry price of common wheat in Jinan, Shandong Province, Zhengzhou, Henan and Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province is 2340 yuan / ton, 2340 yuan / ton and 2300 yuan / ton, respectively, which is basically stable.

Recently, some wheat prices in the main producing areas have risen slightly, mainly due to the decrease in grain supply in circulation in the market, coupled with the recent cooling, rain and snow weather across the country, affecting the normal sales of grain by traders, rather than the increase in market demand.

In the southern sales area, there is little change in the purchase of domestic wheat, and the purchase and sale continues to be light, but due to the slight rise in wheat prices in some main producing areas, the price of wheat in the sales area fluctuates slightly. On November 13, the arrival price of medium white wheat and red wheat in Huangpu, Guangzhou was 2520 yuan / ton, the same as last week, while the arrival price of medium white wheat and red wheat in Fuzhou, Fujian was 2520 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week.

According to the wheat industry market research and analysis report, due to the support of the national temporary storage corn acquisition and the recent sharp rise in corn prices in North China, the price gap between wheat and corn has narrowed compared with the previous period. At present, the specific price of wheat and corn in Shandong is 1.23 and the price difference is 436 yuan / ton; the specific price of wheat and corn in Guangdong and Fujian is 1.2 and the price difference is 423 yuan / ton; the specific price of wheat and corn in Hebei is 1.29 and the price difference is 527 yuan / ton; the specific price of wheat and corn in Henan is 1.26 yuan and the price difference is 481 yuan / ton. Although the price gap between wheat and corn has narrowed recently, it is still difficult for wheat to enter feed substitution according to the current price comparison.

The price of flour is stable as a whole, and the price of wheat bran is weak.

Due to the poor consumption of downstream manufactured products, the operating rate of milling enterprises has remained low since November. According to monitoring, the current average operating rate of flour processing enterprises is 50%, the same as the same period last month, down 5 percentage points from the same period last year. Enterprises are still cautious about the demand for wheat procurement, and most of them are still mainly on demand.

Due to the low profits of processing enterprises, although the current flour sales situation is not good, but the current enterprise price psychology is strong, so flour ex-factory prices are mostly stable. At present, the ex-factory price of special flour in Beijing-Tianjin area is 3120 yuan / ton, Hebei Shijiazhuang area 3060 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinan area 3080 yuan / ton, Henan Zhengzhou area 3060 yuan / ton, all the same as last week.

In the first ten days of November, flour prices in the grain market in southeastern Zhejiang Province remained stable. Compared with the end of October, the average transaction price of special flour and special second flour were 3.36 yuan / kg and 3.16 yuan / kg, respectively.

Affected by the off-season of aquaculture and the slow growth of pig stock, the price of wheat bran is basically weak recently. At present, the ex-factory price of wheat bran in Shijiazhuang area of Hebei Province is 1030 yuan / ton, that of Henan Province is 1040 yuan / ton, that of Jinan area of Shandong Province is 1000 yuan / ton, that of Suzhou area of Anhui Province is 1100 yuan / ton, that of Xuzhou area of Jiangsu Province is 1100 yuan / ton, and that of Guangzhou area of Guangdong is 1320 yuan / ton, which has not changed much.

At present, the theoretical processing profit of local milling enterprises is still in a low position in the near future. On November 13th, the purchasing cost of medium white wheat in Zhengzhou, Henan Province was about 2300 yuan / ton, the ex-factory price of special flour was 3060 yuan / ton, the price of wheat bran was about 1040 yuan / ton, the cost of processing wheat was 200 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit was estimated to be 60 yuan / ton, which is the same as the weekly ratio.