The progress of domestic japonica rice acquisition is faster than the same period last year, and the overall price of japonica rice is stable and moderate.

The harvest of new season japonica rice in Northeast China has been basically completed in mid-early November, and japonica rice in Jiangsu and Anhui has also entered the final stage. due to the influence of the weather, the quality of rice in Northeast China this year is lower than that of last year. At the same time, boosted by policy acquisitions, all kinds of grain enterprises have increased their purchases in the market, and the market purchase and sales have gradually warmed up, but the overall purchase price is stable and weak. In addition, due to the recent foggy weather in Northeast China, logistics and transportation has been affected to a certain extent, the outward transport volume of japonica rice in Northeast China has decreased, and the purchase of japonica rice in Jiangsu and Anhui has gradually increased. The price of japonica rice in Jiangsu and Anhui has gradually stabilized recently.

The overall price of japonica rice in China is stable, moderate and weak.

The quality of new rice in Northeast China this year is lower than that of last year. Take Heilongjiang as an example. At present, the rice harvest in Heilongjiang Province has been completed. Affected by the weather, the overall rice quality this year has declined compared with the previous year, which is mainly reflected in the rice yield. The rice yield of round-grain rice is 1-2 percentage points lower than that of last year, 67-68% is the high rice yield, and the rice yield of high-quality long-grain rice is more obvious. Compared with last year, the average decline is 3-4 percentage points, most of them are about 63%, but the overall moisture is OK. The start-up time of the lowest purchase plan for middle and late rice this year is earlier than that of last year, and the purchase price of japonica rice has been supported to a certain extent. it is understood that so far, the purchase price of long-grain rice in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province is 3150-3300 yuan / ton. the purchase price of long-grain rice in Jiamusi region is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of round-grain rice is 2860-2960 yuan / ton. The purchase price of super rice in Yushu area of Jilin Province is 2980-3160 yuan / ton, that of common rice is 2940-3080 yuan / ton, that of japonica rice in Taizhou area of Jiangsu Province is 2840-3020 yuan / ton, and that of japonica rice in Nanjing area is 2900-3060 yuan / ton. The purchase price of japonica rice in Hefei area of Anhui Province is 2900-3040 yuan / ton, and that of Suzhou area is 2860-3000 yuan / ton, which is basically stable compared with last week, and the rise and fall in some areas is basically 20-60 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, with the increase of the main body of acquisitions in the market, the purchase and sale of japonica rice gradually picked up and the price stabilized.

The progress of domestic japonica rice acquisition is faster than that of the same period last year.

According to statistics from the State Grain Administration, as of November 10, various grain enterprises in seven major producing areas, including Heilongjiang and Jiangsu, had purchased 10.46 million tons of newly produced japonica rice, a substantial increase of 1.19 million tons over the same period last year, of which the start-up time of Heilongjiang japonica rice plan was 21 days earlier than that of the previous year, alleviating the pressure on farmers to sell grain and speeding up the progress of purchase. In addition, according to the monitoring of relevant departments, as of November 10, farmers in Northeast China had sold japonica rice accounted for about 25% of the province's output, 2 percentage points faster than the same period last year, of which Heilongjiang farmers' progress in selling japonica rice was about 28%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. According to the Heilongjiang japonica rice output of 23.2 million tons and the commodity rate of 85%, farmers still have 14.2 million tons of surplus grain that can be sold. The main reason for the accelerated progress of grain sales of japonica rice this year is that the plan for supporting the market of japonica rice has been launched ahead of schedule.

No one is interested in the auction market of Chen Rice.

Since the resumption of the national temporary storage of early indica rice auction in mid-October, five auctions of old rice have ended in low turnover or even failed auction, reflecting the weak demand for old rice in the current rice market, especially for old indica rice. The main reasons why no one is interested in the auction of old rice: first, the impact of a large number of new rice on the demand for old rice, in the case of sufficient market supply, new rice is more attractive to the main body of the market. Second, there is little difference between the price of old rice and that of new rice. The transaction price of recent early indica rice auction market is about 2640 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of new early indica rice in 2015 is 2600-2680 yuan / ton. Old rice has no price advantage for new rice, while rice processing enterprises get old rice mainly to mix with new rice to reduce costs, so when old rice has no price advantage. The willingness of rice processing enterprises to participate in the auction to obtain aged rice is very low. The third is the impact of imported rice on indica rice. Since April this year, the monthly import volume of rice has exceeded that of previous years. The price difference between domestic and foreign indica rice is basically maintained at about 1000 yuan / ton. Foreign rice has a relatively obvious price advantage over Chinese rice. Therefore, it is profitable for traders to import rice, resulting in an increasing import volume, which not only increases domestic supply, but also brings great pressure on the purchase and sale of domestic rice. In particular, it has a greater impact on the market of indica rice with poor quality.

The operating rate of processing enterprises decreased compared with the same period last year.

Since the new season rice went on the market in September this year, the market price of rice has declined steadily, especially the prices of by-product broken rice and rice bran have dropped obviously. most processing enterprises and traders believe that the market supply has increased significantly after the new grain is listed on the market, and the purchase warehouse capacity in some producing areas is tight, and the market support efforts may be less than last year. In view of the easy access to food sources and the low likelihood of price increases, processors and traders are less willing to establish long-term inventories in order to reduce storage capacity and capital consumption. It is understood that at present, the operating rate of medium-sized rice processing enterprises in Northeast China is about 40-50%, which is about 10% lower than that of the same period last year. This is mainly due to poor rice sales in sales areas and difficulties for processing enterprises to carry goods. It is understood that processing enterprises buy new rice at a price of 3000-3050 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of rice is about 4400 yuan / ton, and the theoretical processing profit is 60-80 yuan / ton.

According to the analysis of the late market trend, the author thinks that under the environment that the overall supply exceeds demand in the rice market, the price of japonica rice is expected to remain stable and weak in the short term, in which the northeast japonica rice market is supported by the purchasing factors of supporting the market. although the quality of new rice has declined, with the continuous decline in temperature, farmers' enthusiasm for selling will not decrease, and its price will remain relatively stable. On the other hand, the price in Jiangsu and Anhui is affected by the sluggish market demand for rice and the low willingness of traders to build a warehouse, and its price weakness will remain for some time.