Who will grow grain is related to national food security, net income is declining

"who will grow grain" has always been an extremely important topic, after all, it is related to national food security. However, this does not seem to be a problem, because as long as it is cost-effective to grow grain, someone will naturally grow it. Therefore, in the final analysis, "who will grow grain" is still how to ensure the income of growing grain, but the seriousness of the reality is really worrying.

Net income is declining

The average net income per mu of growing grain depends on grain yield, grain price and grain growing cost. In recent years, with the implementation of the national policy of supporting, benefiting and strengthening agriculture, the infrastructure of grain production has been greatly improved, the ability of agricultural disaster prevention and reduction has been enhanced, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology and the popularization rate of improved varieties have increased year by year, and grain yield per unit area has increased. The national grain yield per unit area in 2014 was 8.3% higher than that in 2010. At the same time, the state has raised grain purchase prices in successive years, and the minimum purchase prices of rice and wheat have increased by an average of about 6% a year from 2004 to 2015, ensuring that grain prices are rising steadily as a whole. The combined efforts of grain yield per unit area and price increase have ensured the growth of the total income of growing grain. The total income per mu of rice and wheat in 2013 was 1305.90 yuan and 901.93 yuan respectively, 21.3% and 20.1% higher than that of rice and wheat in 2010. However, the total cost of growing grain is growing faster. In 2013, the per mu planting cost of rice and wheat was 1151.11 yuan and 914.71 yuan respectively, which was 50.2% and 47.9% higher than that of rice and wheat in 2010. The result is that the net income of growing grain decreases year by year. The net income per mu of rice in 2013 is only 154.79 yuan, which is less than half of the net income per mu in 2010. 2013, the net income per mu of wheat is the first loss, which is 144.95 yuan lower than that in 2010.

From the current situation and future trend, China's grain per unit yield has reached a historical high, and over-relied on chemical fertilizers, pesticides and other agricultural inputs, many areas have varying degrees of soil quality decline, and it is more and more difficult to increase grain yield in the future. The rise in domestic grain prices has also encountered the "ceiling effect" of foreign grain prices. Take rations as an example, after 2012, the price of indica rice in China is generally higher than that of Thai rice, and the price of rice in Vietnam, Pakistan, India and other countries is even lower. Since April 2013, it has become normal that the CIF customs value of wheat in the United States is lower than the transaction price of medium wheat in Zhengzhou. The upside-down of domestic and foreign grain prices makes the space for domestic grain prices to continue to rise is limited, the excessive price gap can easily lead to a large influx of imported grain from various channels, and the trend of grain import has begun to increase in recent years. In the future, the growth momentum of total grain income per mu will inevitably be restrained.

What is disturbing is that the cost of growing grain may continue to rise. In recent years, the scale of land transfer in China has increased year by year. At present, the rate of land transfer is about 30%. The rent of transferred land is generally more than 500 yuan / mu per year, and even as high as 2000 yuan / mu per year in suburban areas. as a result, the cost of land is dominant and the total cost of farming is greatly increased. Moreover, the labor cost of agricultural production is gradually the same as that of cities and towns. at present, the daily wage of agricultural production is generally about 100 yuan. Therefore, the new agricultural operators who need to rent land and use labor have lower net income per mu of growing grain, and the basic loss of growing grain in suburban areas. in the future, the increase in land rent and labor costs will only aggravate the phenomenon of large-scale operators growing less grain and not growing grain.

The relative income is also low.

Compared with growing grain, the profit of planting cash crops is higher. In 2013, the average net profit per mu of the three staple grains (rice, wheat and corn) was 72.94 yuan, and the cost profit margin was 7.1%, while the average profit per mu of vegetables in the surrounding areas of large and medium-sized cities was 2852.27 yuan, which was 39.1 times that of the three staple grains. The cost profit margin is as high as 70.4%. Moreover, vegetables are divided into open-air planting and facility planting, the latter is more expensive, but the profit per mu is higher. This is also the reason why the transferred land in the suburbs of large and medium-sized cities is basically used for the cultivation of cash crops such as vegetables, flowers and seedlings with high profits.

Compared with farming, the income of migrant workers is higher. In 2013, the per capita wage income of rural residents exceeded the household operating income for the first time, which includes a large number of part-time, mainly local farmers' income data. If only the income of migrant workers is calculated, the average monthly income of migrant workers in 2013 is 2609 yuan, even if calculated according to the effective working hours of 10 months per year, the annual income also reaches 26090 yuan, which is 6.9 times of the average household income of farmers in the same year. The relatively high return of migrant workers has directly triggered the flow of young adults and high-quality farmers to urban areas in rural areas. In 2013, migrant workers under the age of 50 accounted for 84.8%, and junior high school education and above accounted for 83.4%. The surplus labor force in rural areas is mainly elderly women and children, and their cultural quality is low, so they can not adapt to modern grain growing methods and advanced production technology.

Stabilize the income mechanism of growing grain

The advantage of stable income from growing grain must be maintained. At present, the reason why the grain acreage has not declined off the cliff, one of the main reasons is that the state adopts the grain collection and storage policy, and the grain price is relatively stable. For risk-averse producers, stable grain income is still highly attractive. Therefore, in the future, efforts should be made to build a stable mechanism of grain income, improve grain collection and storage policies, and improve food crop policy insurance coverage and claim settlement standards.

In the short term, it is necessary to ensure that small farmers grow grain without losing money. Another major reason why China's grain acreage will not decline significantly in the short term is that most of the grain growers are small farmers. The advantage of small farmers in growing grain is that they cultivate land distributed free of charge, excluding manual input, and have a high degree of mechanization of grain production, coupled with the unique "soil-loving plot," as long as there is income after deducting agricultural materials and agricultural machinery expenses. can basically protect the land from being abandoned in a large area. To this end, grain subsidies for small farmers not only can not be abolished, but also let real grain growers get more subsidies, and ease the pressure on farmers' grain production costs in terms of agricultural production services and agricultural material subsidies.

In the medium to long term, the enthusiasm of the main body of large-scale operators in growing grain must be guaranteed. It can be predicted that with the natural replacement of population in rural areas in the future, the main force of grain cultivation represented by middle-aged and elderly scattered farmers will gradually shrink. Large-scale operators represented by farmers' professional cooperatives, family farms, large growers and agricultural enterprises will play the role of grain growers. Under the condition that the cost of land lease remains high, it is not realistic to expect to grow grain in suburban areas, so on the one hand, it is necessary to strictly limit the land use of the main grain producing areas and stimulate the enthusiasm of grain producing areas by means of benefit compensation. On the other hand, it is necessary to construct a policy support system for large-scale grain growers, including financing services, agricultural infrastructure construction, agricultural technology innovation and extension, agricultural socialized services, agricultural insurance protection, and so on. establish a target income subsidy system for large-scale operators.