Prediction and Analysis of Apple output and Price trend in China this year

The high yield of Apple in 2015 and the lower market price in the early period are the two main reasons leading to the return of Apple price. the increase in demand caused by the increase in market stock and lower prices will be the two major determinants of this year's market trend, and the uncertainty in the future will increase. Fruit industry colleagues face difficult choices. There are certain pressures and risks in Apple's acquisition and operation. -- Editor

2014 production season

The price trend disrupts the market rhythm and the purchase is upside down with the inventory price.

Affected by the profit-making effect of the whole year of the 2013 production season and the production reduction in some production areas, the purchase price increased by nearly 40% compared with the same period last year, disrupting the pace of market sales, the accumulation of risks, and the final purchase and exit prices were hung upside down, resulting in few profit opportunities throughout the year. Fruit storage enterprises and fruit farmers generally lose money.

In the 2014 production season, the apple harvest was affected by the profit-making effect of the 2013 production season (higher prices in the future, fruit growers and fruit merchants made huge profits), as well as reduced production in some production areas, and the purchase price rose nearly 40% year-on-year, a record high. At the same time, the purchase prices of bulk fruits such as navel oranges and pears have hit a new high for similar reasons. Because Apple's purchase price is always high, the performance of fruit merchants varies from region to region. Generally speaking, the eastern part is rational and cautious, the western part is relatively positive and optimistic, and the fruit farmers are generally reluctant to sell and resist the price reduction. The final result is that the proportion of fruit farmers in the east and west set a new high. Taking the east and west as an example, Qixia is nearly 80% and Luochuan is about 40%. To the end of harvest, fruit farmers mixed into the warehouse, the overall storage quality is the worst in recent years, resulting in serious diseases of stored apples, secondary fruit rate of more than 10%, loss is much higher in previous years.

The wholesale price of Apple in the 2014 production season was affected by the rise in acquisition prices compared with the same period last year, continuing the high operating trend. As a result, the pace of market sales lags behind that of previous years from the beginning of harvest, the peak season is not prosperous, and the risk of the future accumulates month by month. The peak of wholesale prices for the whole year occurs before the Spring Festival, rather than at the end of the afternoon in most previous years. By mid-late June, inventory increased by more than 30% compared with the same period last year, and the out-of-warehouse price began to loose and went down all the way. Looking at the entire storage and sales period of Apple, the purchase and exit prices are upside down, there are few profit opportunities throughout the year, and fruit storage enterprises and farmers are generally losing money. Although the market price caused by quality difference has differentiation, high quality and high price, it is dragged down by low-price fruit, the sales of high-quality fruit is also slow, and the profit space is compressed.

2015 production season

The acquisition will present a situation in the buyer's market, and some "selling difficulties" will not be ruled out.

The purchase period may be extended to a certain extent, and the final amount of apples in storage is related to the confidence of fruit merchants and farmers in the future. The purchase price of 6 yuan / kg is the market psychological line and will become an important indicator to judge the prosperity of the Apple market this year.

Generally speaking, in the late stage of apple growth this year, the national climate is basically "strong", the number of blossoms has increased by about 30% compared with the same period last year, and the number of bags has increased by more than 20%. It is a foregone conclusion to increase production. In Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and Xinjiang in North China, the increase in production is relatively high, with an increase of more than 10% in most producing areas. The increase in production in western Shaanxi, Gansu, and Sanmenxia in southern Liaoning and western Henan is less than that in the provinces of North China, with an increase of about 5%.

Taking the above situation into account, coupled with the increase in total output caused by the increase in apple acreage in various producing areas, it is estimated that apples will increase by about 8% this year compared with the same period last year. In addition, there are no large-scale serious diseases in the country, so the overall quality of apple is more prominent. Compared with previous years, apple production in 2015 shows the distinct characteristics of large quantity and high quality.

In 2014, due to factors such as the substantial increase in Apple production and the weak performance of the Apple market in 2015, the sharp decline in Apple's purchase price cannot be changed, returning to the level of about 6 yuan / kg in the 2013 production season (referring to the paper bag 8-inch Red Fuji or above, the following is the same unless otherwise specified) is the judgment of many people in the industry. Judging from the sales of Gala, Jianhong and other early and medium-ripe varieties, the purchase price has dropped by 20% and 50% compared with the same period last year, and the price differentiation is more obvious due to different producing areas and quality, but it also basically indicates that after October, the acquisition of Red Fuji will not be calm.

Apple's purchase price is lower, and several factors that can partially alleviate the sales pressure are also negative: first, the overall macroeconomic downturn has a more or less impact on fruit consumption. Second, in recent years, new circulation channels such as e-commerce and fruit chain supermarkets have played the role of price "spoiler" in past Apple acquisitions because they pay more attention to the inherent quality of fruits and the need to expand the market, as well as the strong ability to transfer costs. This year, due to environmental and other reasons, acquisitions will tend to be rational. Third, the amount of imported fruit (including apples) has increased year by year, eroding part of the domestic fruit market, the largest domestic output of apples has also been affected, while domestic apple exports have declined year after year. Fourth, the fruit juice market has been in the doldrums for many years, and domestic processing enterprises produce more according to orders in order to control risks. Due to the decline in raw material prices this year, there is a lack of motivation to greatly expand production capacity.

However, although the above factors are negative, their role in the future cannot be compared with the key factor of market confidence. The ceiling capping effect of apple prices in 2014, and the squeezing effect of cost floor lifting, caused a large area of losses for fruit growers and fruit merchants. For businesses in 2015, due to the decline in acquisition prices, it has expanded enough profit space, which is a necessary condition for Apple to make a profit that year. If fruit industry colleagues maintain enough confidence to be optimistic about the future and generate good industry expectations, the risk of expanding acquisitions is at least much smaller than last year.

To sum up, the high-yield and high-quality pattern of Apple across the country in 2015, coupled with the weak early market performance, will dominate this year's Apple acquisition market, and Apple prices will no longer behave as irrationally as they did in 2014, with a decline of about 30%. The purchase price of 6 yuan / kg is the market psychological line and will become an important indicator to judge the prosperity of the Apple market this year.

Market strategy

Optimize acquisition and management strategy and actively promote brand strategy

The increase in market stock and the increase in demand caused by lower prices will be the two major determinants of the market trend this year. With the increase of uncertainty in the future, there are certain pressures and risks in Apple's acquisition and operation.